What is happening
UK food price inflation eased through the first half of 2026. The most recent confirmed figure from the ONS is 2.2 per cent for the 12 months to May 2026, down from 3.7 per cent in April.
Two faster trackers gave an early reading for June. The BRC recorded 2.4 per cent, while Which? recorded 2.6 per cent. Their baskets and collection methods differ from the ONS, so the figures should not be treated as directly interchangeable.
The ONS is the official reference point used here. The next confirmed figure was due on 22 July 2026 when this guide was reviewed.
What it could mean for your shopping
National figures describe an average across the country and many kinds of shopping. They provide useful context, but they cannot predict what one household will spend. That depends on the dinners cooked, the ingredients bought and where the shopping is done.
For context, the Food Foundation's tracked weekly shopping basket cost £53.51 to £60.24 in June 2026, up 30.6 to 38.4 per cent since April 2022.
DinnerByDesign works differently. Its estimates are built from the specific dinners, quantities and ingredient prices in a plan, not from a national average.
Why planning can make a difference
- Reuse core ingredients across several dinners so less is bought and wasted.
- Filter for lower-cost dinner ideas before deciding what to cook.
- Use cheaper equivalent ingredients where a dinner allows it.
- Work from a shopping list tied to scheduled dinners to avoid unplanned or duplicate purchases.
Ways DinnerByDesign can help
DinnerByDesign's Low Cost filter surfaces suitable dinner ideas using lower-cost ingredients. Schedule one or more saved dinners and DinnerByDesign generates a costed shopping list, so you can review the estimate before you shop.
Explore five dinners for two under £40 or read how ingredient prices are calculated.
How the trackers differ
- ONS Consumer Prices Index: the official reference basket, published after each month ends.
- BRC Shop Price Index: shelf prices from major retailers, published faster but with different basket weightings.
- Which? tracker: around 27,000 individual product prices across major supermarkets.
Different baskets, weightings and collection dates can produce different rates for the same period.
Forecasts are not measured outcomes
The Food and Drink Federation forecast food inflation of over 9 per cent by the end of 2026. The Institute of Grocery Distribution's baseline scenario projected an average of 3.8 per cent across 2026, with a higher-impact scenario around 6.4 per cent. These projections are uncertain and should not be read as recorded price changes.